| Black Swans | | | | predictive analysis skills are up to the task in a |
| Any discussion of new directions for strategic | | | | crisis situation. Qualitative intelligence can be added |
| planning and management must inevitably address | | | | to an organization by taking a Systems View of |
| the growing debate around the accuracy of the | | | | the Organization, published previously by this |
| forecasting models used as the basis of | | | | author. Do expect qualitative intelligence to play a |
| decision-making. | | | | bigger role alongside quantitative analysis in |
| | | | organizational management in the future. |
| One of the authors Nassem Nicholas Taleb - the | | | | Black Ash |
| analyst who forged new ground in risk analysis | | | | A common theme in our research is that |
| and decision making by focusing on how to turn a | | | | strategic management is being drilled down deeper |
| lack of information and understanding into | | | | into organizations. As a result, coaching and group |
| decision-making - is set to release an updated | | | | facilitation of middle and senior managers, to |
| edition of his best-selling book the Black Swan this | | | | develop specific strategic management skills such |
| month, in which he plans to tell us how to | | | | as strategic thinking, which includes scenario |
| operationalize this lack of knowledge. Rather than | | | | thinking, is becoming more common. |
| building more complex models, to face | | | | The airline crisis created by the Icelandic volcanic |
| globalization, he will argue for making our | | | | ash highlighted the need for scenario thinking |
| structures less complex. | | | | planning capability at all levels of an organization to |
| Qualitative Intelligence | | | | cope with crisis situations. Lots of 'what ifs' were |
| Along the same lines of thinking, a Harvard | | | | raised during the grounding of European planes, |
| Business Review case study in May's edition | | | | but not everyone had the tools to assess the |
| argues that qualitative intelligence is needed to | | | | options and their impact. Risk managers are now |
| manage in a world of an "ambiguous system of | | | | talking about preparing for "black ash" events, |
| systems."In Beyond the Numbers: Building Your | | | | clearly a play on "black swan," or low probability |
| Qualitative Intelligence, Roger Martin saliently | | | | events that are hard, if at all possible, to predict. |
| questions whether our quantitative models and | | | | |